Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Subjective Probability In the course of their daily lives men must constantly measure the probability of events. How these personal judgements conform to the actual laws of probability is investigated ...

Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

Prediction markets let you trade on the probability of real-world events, using prices as forecasts rather than opinions or fixed odds. Prediction markets are financial markets where people trade ...